The Logic of “Irrational” Attacks
People wonder why the heck the Islamic Republic would send missiles across the Middle East, even toward Arab neighbors that aren’t part of the conflict.
But there’s a kind of strategic logic to behavior that looks irrational on the surface. We’ve seen it before.
9/11 was irrational in the same sense. Why attack civilians? It didn’t change any military balance of power. All it did was bring the overwhelming power of the U.S. down on them. Yet the psychological effect was enormous: it created the perception of American vulnerability and ignited a massive surge of confidence and recruitment across Islamist movements.
10/7 looked similarly irrational. Surely massacring civilians would generate sympathy for the victims. But the architects understood something darker about human social dynamics: humiliation of a powerful enemy generates prestige for the attacker. Their hope was that the spectacle would ignite a global intifada — and in many ways it did. Within hours, protests erupted worldwide condemning not Hamas but Israel. Jew-hatred surged, and the brutality of Hamas — itself a brutal oppressor of Gazans — faded from the narrative. The massacre became a grotesque PR event: the champion appeared knocked down, and crowds rushed to place their reputational bets on the side that seemed ascendant.
That same logic helps explain why the Islamic Republic might launch a reckless barrage of missiles across the region.
Imagine if one of those missiles had struck Burj Khalifa and caused massive destruction. The narrative across Islamist networks would not have been “the UAE was attacked.” It would have been that a towering symbol of Western wealth and power had been struck — proof that the West and its allies were weak and vulnerable.
The psychological payoff would dwarf the military one. Such a spectacle could electrify Islamist movements across the region, energize supporters inside Iran, and perhaps even draw fighters and sympathizers toward the regime’s security forces — the IRGC, Sepah, and Basij — strengthening their hand against the Iranian population they rule.
From that perspective, the missiles are less about military success than about reputation theater: high-risk spectacles meant to generate prestige, humiliation, and narrative momentum.
The massacre itself was the PR win for Hamas. Moment 431
Why conspicuous massacres work for PR. Moment 434