Conceptual frameworks drive what we believe
And if panic gives you the wrong conceptual framework, you’ll reason as scientifically as you want but still get everything wrong.
It was always seasonal, but every piece of received wisdom about respiratory viruses was thrown out the window in March 2020 “because it’s *novel*!” …something I discussed in detail in July of 2020…
…and I discuss these issues in this Moment.
…and you can read about these issues — and my solution to the riddle of induction w/ Tim Barber — here in Chapter 3 of my first book, The Brain from 25000 Feet.





