3 Year Anniversary of Covid Hysteria
My first tweets on Covid were three years ago today, trying to provide some reassurance to what was obviously the beginnings of a potential collective hysteria.
Mark Changizi@MarkChangizi
“Of the 705 passengers who tested positive for the virus on the Diamond Princess, six died -- which is a death rate of less than 1%. All of the patients who died onboard were more than 70 years old.“
Seems inevitable that the death rate is overestimated
abcnews.go.com
Early mortality rates for coronavirus are likely misleading, experts say
3:54 PM · Mar 10, 2020
318 Reposts · 875 Likes
Mark Changizi@MarkChangizi
And disproportionately affecting those already weak.
popsci.com/story/health/c…
3:58 PM · Mar 10, 2020
33 Reposts · 126 Likes
Mark Changizi@MarkChangizi
Some more helpful context. bbc.com/news/health-51…
6:31 PM · Mar 10, 2020
47 Reposts · 105 Likes
Mark Changizi@MarkChangizi
@PaulHRosenberg True. But, the "deadly virus" angle has led to panic, and, e.g.,, no toilet paper. Panics, and the consequences, have their own risks.
Better to have a realistic grasp of the dangers, and to move forward to minimize the rate of infection, and maximize care to those affected.
4:31 PM · Mar 10, 2020
15 Reposts · 50 Likes
Mark Changizi@MarkChangizi
@PaulHRosenberg Well, if one multiplies most such small numbers by very large numbers, we get a lot of deaths. Same is true for influenza, which is indeed very deadly in this sense. ...but is rarely prefaced with "deadly".
4:42 PM · Mar 10, 2020
2 Reposts · 7 Likes
And more on March 12…
Mark Changizi@MarkChangizi
These are the COVID-19 mortality rates by age calculated by the Chinese CDC:
ages 10-19: 0.2%
ages 20-29: 0.2%
ages 30-39: 0.2%
ages 40-49: 0.4%
ages 50-59: 1.3%
ages 60-69: 3.6%
ages 70-79: 8%
80 and over: 14.8%
latimes.com
What’s the risk of COVID-19 for a healthy young person?
9:51 PM · Mar 12, 2020
28 Reposts · 55 Likes
Mark Changizi@MarkChangizi
And, of course, the true driver isn't age per se, but infirmity.
If you're healthy, then
- wash hands often
- keep a physical buffer between yourself & others, especially the infirm,
- don't touch your face.
Otherwise carry on, because the society / economy depends on it.
10:00 PM · Mar 12, 2020
50 Reposts · 185 Likes
And I was wrong about washing hands and touching your face.
But the key point there was the last sentence:
Carry on, because the society / economy depends on it.
Glad to see your comments about infirmity not age. I got sick of seeing how older people were all shoved into the same category, the constant 'you'll die of it cos you're old'.
The Diamond Princess was one of the things that convinced me that public health was selling porky pies with respect to Covid. This was long before I encountered any so-called "dissidents".